Objective performance comparison of Argentina and USA players while their teams were two goals behind with 15 minutes left during WC26 games
- Jesús Rico-Sanz, PhD
- 11 hours ago
- 5 min read
During the World Cup 2026, Argentina and the USA advanced past the group stage and won their matches in the round of 32 against Cabo Verde and Bosnia and Herzegovina, respectively. In the round of 16, Argentina and USA teams were two goals behind in the fourth quarter against Egypt and Belgium, respectively. This analysis focuses on technical quality and tactical decisions during that period.
In the game against Egypt, between minute 75 and his goal in minute 83, Messi achieved a grade performance average (GPA) of 1.86 for his attacking technical actions during those crucial 8 minutes. In minute 79, Messi provided an assist with a spinning cross from the attacking right, which Romero headed into the net.
With the score at 1-2, in the 82nd minute, Messi generated another scoring chance. He broke through on the right side and advanced to the edge of the Egyptian 6-yard box, where he sent a pass to Lautaro Martinez, whose header narrowly missed the goal.
In the 83rd minute, Messi again looked to produce another scoring opportunity for Argentina. He directed the ball towards the 6-yard box as Romero moved forward.
The cross went past Romero and reached Lautaro Martinez, who then sent it along the 6-yard line to Montiel. Montiel managed to control the ball as the Egyptian defenders couldn't clear it. He then laid it back to Messi, who performed a slicing side volley to score. Messi had followed his initial pass into the open space created by the movement of the Argentinian attackers and the Egyptian defenders.
In those five minutes, from his pass to Romero's goal until Messi scored Argentina's second goal, Messi achieved a GPA of 2.47. This GPA for attacking technical actions is similar to the GPA he achieved during the second half of overtime in the final of the World Cup 2022; his GPA then was 2.42 (Rico-Sanz, 2023). This demonstrates the consistency in the quality of his technical actions under the intense pressure of needing to recover from a two-goal deficit with just 15 minutes remaining in the match.
In the final moments, two minutes into extra time, the Argentinian team took advantage of a counterattack from the right side once more. Lautaro Martinez delivered a flawless cross, enabling Fernandez to score with a precise header. Argentina managed to score 3 goals in 14 minutes.
In the closing moments of their game against Belgium, the USA's attacking players, occupying roles similar to Messi's, were unable to generate significant chances or score. In the 78th minute, McKennie delivered a cross to the penalty area, but it was cleared by a defender. Three minutes later, Reyna aimed a pass at Balogun, and despite a Belgian defender's miskick while attempting to intercept, Balogun's shot was saved by Courtois. During this 8-minute period, Tillman did not generate any significant chances for the USA. Ultimately, the USA team allowed a fourth goal to Belgium.
During those 8 minutes, the GPA for attacking actions was 1.55 for McKennie, 1.29 for Reyna, and 1.20 for Tillman, all notably lower than Messi's GPA.
It could be argued that the USA team faced a tougher challenge since Belgium is ranked 8th in the world according to FIFA, whereas Egypt is ranked 24th. Nonetheless, Egypt demonstrated their strength by leading by two goals against Argentina, the current World Champions. If the USA team wanted to claim they belong in the top 8 in the World this was an opportunity missed.
The crucial takeaway is what Argentina chose to do after the 75th minute, demonstrating their determination to win. Romero, the right central defender, moved up to join Lautaro Martinez as a center forward aiming for Messi's crosses and remained in that position until Messi scored the second goal. Normally, Messi drifts to the right during games, but he remained closer to the sideline during that critical period. This tactical change was effective, with Romero and Messi playing pivotal roles in the first two goals. Following the second goal, there was no longer a need to take risks, so Romero returned to his primary role as a central defender. Also another defender, Montiel, the right back, assisted Messi near the penalty spot. As time progressed, the Argentinian team, knowing the urgency to score, increased the pace and accuracy of their actions, made decisive choices, and took risks to attack the opponent's goal. On the other hand, the USA team did not take such aggressive tactical move against Belgium, despite the fact that, for instance, Freeman, a defender, had scored a header in a previous game against Australia (FIFA, 2026). Richards, the right central defender, had scored a header in the final of the 2023 CONCACAF Nationals League final (US soccer, 2023). Whether it was Freeman or Richards moving from their defender positions to a center forward role, this aggressive move of this nature did not occur after the second hydration break.
Also, there was no clear urgency by the USA players in bringing the ball inside the Belgian 18-yd box. In contrast, the images above demonstrate that during that period, every Argentinian cross was attacked by at least five Argentinian players. When Messi took his shot to score the second goal that equalized the match in the 83rd minute, there were eight Argentinian players inside the penalty box. This was a remarkable display of determination to win; in fact, all eight players were positioned in the area between the 6-yard and 18-yard boxes, within the width of the 6-yard box, covering an area of 20 by 12 yards. The USA team did not bring this level of threat to the Belgium goal. Conversely, most of the passes by the USA team were either lateral or backward. They lacked not only quality, precision and difficulty, but also speed in their play for this level of the competition.
In order for the USA to advance to the semifinals or final of a World Cup in the future, there is need to improve the quality under pressure and winning mentality of the current roster and importantly identify more talent necessary to excel at that level. Match analysis with the GPA and its objective criteria can objectively identify the talent required to perform like the top 4 teams in the 2026 World Cup (Argentina, France, England, Spain). The GPA analysis in multiple games and throughout the years will guide the progression to reach higher levels. Additionally, having defenders -including goalkeepers- skillful with the ball and capable of not only defending but attacking and scoring is crucial for building a world class team. Lastly, identifying the will to win is essential early in the talent search process.
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